Make A Calculated EV Transition And Not Fall For The Frenzy: Part 2

At the time of publishing Part 1, the price of diesel was NZ$3.54 up from just under $2 a week ago. This sharp rise was due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in response to attacks by the United States and Israel on February 28. It is now almost two months since the conflict began and the price of diesel is hovering somewhere over the NZ$3.50 region. One thing is clear though – the price of oil coming out of the Gulf region has reached a new level of volatility. You can read this BBC report that suggests how the ever shifting timeline of this war is leaving political and business analysts unable to predict any clear outcome.

Here is a graph and a table that shows how oil prices are far from where they were before the war started despite fluctuations (Image source: tradingeconomics.com)

The New Normal

As mentioned in my previous post, there has been a sudden surge in EV interest in New Zealand as evident from the 2257 EVs sold in March alone which has been the highest monthly sales since the end of the Clean Car Rebate in December 2023. Much of this can be attributed to the shock effect of the sudden and sharp rise of fuel prices in March. But it is not unreasonable to think that there would be discussions about the dependency on fossil and about creating a resilience against fuel shocks in future. As much as we think what is happening tens of thousands of kilometres would not affect the ground reality here, they actually can and we are seeing it play in real-time.

The Q1 2026 new plug-in sales are the highest since the EV subsidy was removed (Image source: evdb.nz)

Riding The Wave

With the current fuel prices, there is no need to debate the benefits of transitioning into an EV vis-a-vis running costs. There could be some concern about upfront costs of EV adoption and other things like government duties/levies that may apply. As an individual or a self-employed business what are the factors that would involve your decision to transition to an electric vehicle?

To understand this, let’s categorise car buyers into two broad categories namely – The Family Mover and 2) The Commuter. For each category I will provide you with a price range, likely choice in ICE vehicles and how it compares with an available EV option. I will provide you with a cost analysis that will show running costs for both types and the justification for each.

For the sake of simplicity I will have left out industrial vehicles, freight and farming equipment out of this comparison. During this comparison exercise I will be using current NZ average energy rates – Electricity variable charge at NZ$0.243/kWh and Petrol charged at NZ$3.35/litre at the time of writing this article. The fixed charges for electricity have been left out as it is assumed one is paying that anyway for getting power at home so its not an added cost.

Category 1 – The Family Mover

Typically, this category of car buyers consists of a large family of two adults and three or more children or teenagers. Their requirements are space, comfort and value for money. A popular choice is a vehicle like a used import seven seat Mazda Premacy MPV or a seven seater Nissan X-Trail SUV shown below (Image source: AI generated). Price range for a tidy, low kms, 10-15 yr old: NZ$10,000-20,000. Note that the average age of a vehicles in New Zealand is 15 years.

Red Mazda wagon car parked by curb on suburban street

Blue Nissan X-Trail SUV driving on curvy coastal road with sunset and mountains

THE ELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE: A fully electric second hand Mercedes Benz EQB 250 is available from NZ$69,950. A brand new Kia EV9 starts at NZ$110,790. These are the cheapest EV options available currently in this vehicle type. There are a few Nissan e-NV 200 and LDV EV80 vans listed on TradeMe which do not qualify as the same type of vehicle. It should also be worth noting that there are no imports available in this vehicle category. The photos below are in the same order (Image source: Mercedes-Benz UK/Kia NZ). Price range for a tidy, low kms, 2-3 yr old: NZ$70,000-100,000.

THE MATH: An average family in New Zealand does around 12,000-14,000km annually, does a mix of city and highway travel and occasional out of the city trips. Choosing a petrol car would mean more choice in second hand and new, while fewer in fully electric. Price wise, it is the same story – a much wider price range in petrol than in electric. It is however cheaper to run and maintain and EV and also more convenient as you may never have to visit a petrol pump. I do feel the much higher price for a seven-seater electric vehicle and very limited affordable options in the second-hand market would mean very slow adoption for those big families in New Zealand.

Petrol vs EV Costs for 12,000km Annual Usage	2015 Mazda Premacy (used import – done 100,000km)	2024 Mercedes-Benz 250 (used NZ new – done 10,000km)
Vehicle Type	Petrol 7 Seater MPV	EV 7 Seater SUV
Age	11 Yrs	2 Yrs
Efficiency (Stated)	7 Litres/100km	15.7 kWh/100km
*Upfront Cost of Car*	*NZ$ 10,000*	*NZ$ 69,950*
Energy Cost (Yearly)	NZ$ 2930 (Petrol)	NZ$ 480 (Charging at home)
Road User Charges (Yearly)	Nil	NZ$ 950
Insurance Full (Yearly)	NZ$ 440	NZ$ 840
Registration/ WOF	NZ$ 200	NZ$ 200
Servicing/Tyres	NZ$ 800	NZ$ 400
*Total Annual Costs*	*NZ$ 4,370*	*NZ$ 2,870*

THE DEAL: Even though there is an annual fuel saving of NZ$1,500 you would pay a much higher acquisition cost for the available EV option, so availability of enough second-hand EVs is a factor here. Financing the difference in purchase price over 36 months would mean an additional annual cost of roughly NZ$23,400 at 9.9% interest. Therefore, a net increase in spending for the first three years. On the flip side, purchasing a brand new Hyundai Santa Fe Hybrid 7 seater SUV that costs as much as the used EQB electric SUV, you would be spending NZ$1,500 more on running costs every year. For those interested, there are schemes available for home loan customers who can get a 1% top up loan of up to NZ$80,000 to buy an EV or a hybrid vehicle.

Category 2 – The Commuter

This category includes individuals who use a car to commute to work, and ride share drivers typically doing very medium to high kms, anywhere between 20,000 to 75,000 km annually. Their requirements are high fuel efficiency and high reliability. Space is also a consideration for ride share drivers. An ideal choice is a used import like a Toyota Aqua or a Toyota Prius Hybrid shown in the photos respectively (Image source: AI generated). Price range for a tidy 10-15 year old: NZ$7,500 – NZ$15,000.

Silver car parked on street near city tower with two people inside

Cars boarding and exiting the Interislander ferry Kaitaki at Wellington Ferry Terminal in Wellington harbor

Taking into account the current fuel crisis, there are two things that you really need to consider when comparing an ICE vehicle like the ones above to an EV – up front costs and running costs. Its a no brainer that running costs are going to be lower or at par with petrol hybrids like the Aqua if you can charge at home. In order to provide a realistic EV alternative we need to break this category into two sub-categories – 2.1) Low User 2.2) High User

2.1 Low User

THE ELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE: This sub-category includes those who use their car to commute roughly 80-100km a day or about 20,000km a year. They could be shift workers who cannot access public transport or even app-based delivery drivers. Their usage is continuous, usually one person using the car mostly, could be a second vehicle and mostly driving in urban conditions. An imported Gen 1 Nissan Leaf looks like an ideal option for this type of usage. An older model with a 30kWh battery offers a driving range of 120-150km depending on the State Of Health (SOH) of the battery. Being a used import it would not have a factory warranty but the good news is you can get a third-party mechanical breakdown insurance (MBI) that covers the high voltage traction battery for any sudden failure. This one from AA provides a cover up to NZ$5,000 for cars that are under 10 years old. There hasn’t been too many reports of battery failures. A general degradation of the battery is expected in any car but that is excluded by the MBI. Below is a photo of Gen 1 Nissan Leaf (Image source: Nissan Global). Price of a 10-15 year old car : NZ$10,000-15,000

THE MATH: Doing 20,000-25,000km annually means choosing an EV needs to substantially reduce running costs and provide better value for money at the same price. The downside is fewer choices available.

Petrol vs EV Costs for 20,000km Annual Usage	2013 Toyota Aqua (used import – done 80,000km)	2016 Gen 1 Nissan Leaf 30kWh (used import – done 70,000km)
Vehicle Type	Petrol Hybrid Hatchback	Electric Hatchback
Age	11 Yrs	10 Yrs
Efficiency (Stated)	3.6 Litres/100km	16.7 kWh/100km
*Upfront Cost of Car*	*NZ$ 9,000*	*NZ$ 10,000*
Energy Cost (Yearly)	NZ$ 2400 (Petrol)	NZ$ 810 (Charging at home)
Road User Charges (Yearly)	Nil	NZ$ 1520
Insurance Full (Yearly)	NZ$ 440	NZ$ 840
Registration/ WOF	NZ$ 200	NZ$ 200
Servicing/Tyres	NZ$ 1200	NZ$ 800
*Total Annual Costs*	*NZ$ 4*,240	*NZ$ 4,170*

THE DEAL: It is almost a draw if you look at the fuel savings at the current fuel prices. If you are following the global news, you can guess that even if the fuel prices do not increase any further in the near term, it will surely not return to the prices that existed before the supply crunch. A car like the Gen 1 Leaf can also be ideal for any city dweller and it will provide fuel savings even for someone doing as low as 5000km a year.

2.2 – High User

THE ELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE: This sub-category includes drivers of ride share services like Uber and Didi or those who travel an excess of 200-250km on a daily basis. Efficiency, durability, space and warranty are key factors. Due to the higher usage a newer car will be the preference. Most NZ New electric vehicles come with 7- 8 years of transferable factory warranty for batteries. A fairly new 60kWh BYD Atto 3 or a Tesla Model Y RWD are options that have been time tested, for quality, performance and value for money (Image source: AI generated). Price range: NZ$ 40,000-50,000

BYD ATTO 3 and Tesla Model Y electric SUVs charging in parking lot

THE MATH: An app based ride share driver can do up to 75,000km annually therefore efficiency and reliability are a must. To taxi people around, factors like comfort, ride quality and boot space are also important and there are a lot of choices in EVs that meet these requirements exceptionally well. Let’s have a look at how a mid sized EV compares with a popular hybrid.

Petrol vs EV Costs for 75,000km Annual Usage	2015 Toyota Prius (NZ New – done 80,000km)	2022 BYD Atto 3 60kWh (NZ New – done 70,000km)
Vehicle Type	Petrol Hybrid Sedan	Electric SUV
Age	11 Yrs	4 Yrs
Efficiency (Stated)	3.6 Litres/100km	17.4 kWh/100km
*Upfront Cost of Car*	*NZ$ 17,000*	*NZ$ 42,000*
Energy Cost (Yearly)	NZ$ 9045 (Petrol)	NZ$ 3200 (Charging at home)
Road User Charges (Yearly)	Nil	NZ$ 5700
Insurance Full (Yearly)	NZ$ 440	NZ$ 840
Registration/ COF	NZ$ 280	NZ$ 280
Servicing/Tyres	NZ$ 2200	NZ$ 1800
*Total Annual Costs*	*NZ$ 12,000*	*NZ$ 11,800*

THE DEAL: While there is a NZ$25,000 added investment required for the EV with the current petrol prices the EV provides a NZ$200 yearly savings in running costs. Taking into consideration the current fuel crisis this saving could go up if petrol prices appreciate further. In theory, if petrol touches NZ$4 the projected yearly savings would be more than NZ$2000 while the running cost for the EV would remain the same, if power prices do not change drastically in a short period of time.

Realistically, we may not see current ride share owners of Prius hybrids ditch their petrol cars immediately and opt for an EV because it may be cost prohibitive. But for someone planning to take up any profession that requires doing excessive kms, an EV does make a strong case in this volatile energy market.

There are some limited choices available of other second hand EVs at the NZ$20,000-25,000 price point like the 38kWh Hyundai Ioniq Electric (2017-2022) which offer a lower driving range makes switching to EVs even more attractive price wise. We definitely need to see hundreds of more second hand electric vehicles of all types that makes the EV switch much more affordable. I personally think the Clean Car Standard in New Zealand needs to get back its teeth so that dealers and distributors are motivated to have an equal mix of low emission and high emission vehicles. Scrapping the CCS as recommended by some, may become a reason many New Zealanders won’t be able to afford electric vehicles.

Sources:

Gaspy: https://www.gaspy.nz/stats.html

BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g4e6z9960o

Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil#:~:text=Brent%20crude%20futures%20plunged%2010,for%20a%20broader%20peace%20deal.

TradeMe: https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/nissan/x-trail/listing/5781490366

TradeMe: https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/mazda/premacy/listing/5875244741

EHINZ – https://www.ehinz.ac.nz/assets/Surveillance-reports/Released_2025/AgeOfVehicles-2505.pdf

Mercedes-Benz UK: https://www.mercedes-benz.co.uk/passengercars/models/suv/eqb/overview.html

Automobile Catalog: https://www.automobile-catalog.com/make/mazda/premacy_3gen/premacy_3_1_mpv/2015.html

Kia NZ – https://kia.co.nz/vehicles/ev9/

Hyundai NZ – https://www.hyundai.co.nz/suv/santa-fe

MTF – https://www.mtf.co.nz/resources/loan-calculator/